As a businessperson, it’s expected that you approach forecasts with a ​pinch of salt. The technology sector is no different in this regard, if not ​worse, in anticipating uncertainty. Since the dawn of Silicon Valley tech ​companies, many startup enthusiasts have been placing their blood and ​sweat (with some luck) in creating the next big thing in the industry. ​With the help of several angel investors, this became possible for a ​select few. The saturation of competent IT professionals made it ​difficult to create a solution that another person has not already thought ​about. It almost felt like trying to perfectly structure a “viral post”, ​hoping that it will follow its namesake. But that isn’t how viral posts are ​made, and it certainly isn’t how ingenious groundbreaking inventions are ​made. In one of my favorite books written by Blake Masters and Peter ​Thiel entitled “Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the ​Future”, it stated “Every moment in business happens only once…If you ​are copying these guys [Bill Gates, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg], you ​aren’t learning from them”. That was my first thought upon reading ​Dhebar’s paper.

Unfortunately, this is the exact state of many technological ​advancements in recent years. The goal for several of these was not to ​make a new solution to a societal problem; it was to make a similar ​solution, but a little bit better. It worked for some, but hardly worked for ​others. This was particularly true for mobile apps. When Uber started to ​gain momentum, many other similar apps joined the market, trying to ​compete with the others by pouring huge cash on advertising and ​discounts. This was why numerous others came into the picture, ​including Grab, Angkas, Owto, Avis, Toktok, and ePickme up (the last ​three of which I have not tried using).

The presence of multiple players, however, did not necessarily mean ​better solutions for the consumers. The service rates were too ​benchmarked to the point that it didn’t even matter which app you chose; ​you’d be paying roughly the same amount. Even for the riders, I recall ​booking a document delivery in Lalamove but the delivery man was ​wearing a Grab outfit; apparently, they were working for three ​transportation apps at the same time! The riders, in this case, was what ​the article referred to as “complementors” who are independent entities ​offering a similar service to different companies in the same sector. For ​the e-transport community, however, a lot of external factors came into ​play: the rising fuel prices, the level of urbanization, and the purchasing ​power of consumers. It reached a point that the choice boiled down to ​which app could be booked the fastest (not the cheapest). And just like ​the drivers, the consumers compensated by booking three apps ​simultaneously as well! Whoever confirmed the fastest was “the one”, and ​the others would be cancelled. Did it make things more efficient for ​transportation? Maybe, maybe not. But it did result in more cars on the ​road (leading to more congestion) and a lot of frustrated drivers, so much ​so that they had to “sell their bodies” to some interested passengers to ​keep up with inflation[1]. I can almost hear my Systems Thinking reading ​shouting at me “That’s fixes that failed!”.

Infiltrating an existing market did work out for some, though, one of which ​was the e-commerce industry. Platforms like the OLX and Carousell were ​some of the first ones, but were eventually overrun by Shopee and Lazada. ​Shopee was actually one of the last ones to enter, but aggressive ​marketing efforts greatly increased their market share to the point that ​monopoly[2] was almost achieved by both Lazada and Shopee.

An interesting concept that was not explicitly stated in the article (but ​can be implied in the analogy of Alice trying to navigate the croquet-​ground) is the concept of User Interface (UI). This has been a growing ​industry and certainly one of the biggest strengths of Shopee when it ​came head-to-head with Lazada as early as 2015. Despite the prevailing ​technological uncertainties in mobile apps, UI has been time-tested to ​be a crucial component in app development (which is also an application ​of the “customer-focused approach”).

Among the apps that have successfully garnered a large enough ​network to be valuable to the consumers, UI can make or break. It was ​one of the factors why people shifted from Friendster to Facebook, and ​why Tiktok has successfully entered the social media market. Tiktok is a ​very contemporary example of how an easy interface and an addicting ​algorithm can get a massive following. Advertisers were shifting to ​Tiktok that it posed as a threat to both Facebook and Instagram, ​resulting in them incorporating Facebook and Instagram Reels to retain ​users and advertisers. Facebook has likewise entered the e-commerce ​industry by introducing the Facebook Marketplace, making OLX and ​Carousell seem like the jokes middle-aged millennials would discuss to ​Gen-Z youngsters like a relic in the past.

A more recent global event also altered the course of technological ​advancement: the COVID-19 pandemic. Videochatting platforms started ​to get saturated by new players like Zoom, Webex by Cisco, and ​Microsoft Teams, making Skype another forgotten gem. Although the ​article emphasized how uncertainty can be dangerous, the flip side is ​that uncertainty can open opportunities too.

Another example of a sector growth is that in the entertainment industry. ​Although Netflix has started mass streaming since 1999, it was during the ​pandemic that usage skyrocketed in the Philippines, with some ​lawmakers wanting to tax the media giant to boost government funds. ​This opportunity also resulted to other media companies joining in the ​funfest, including Disney Plus, HBO GO, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, etc. ​Apart from UI, the competitive advantage of these companies come from ​what Dhebar’s article introduced as “Network effects”. It was originally ​meant to indicate how the volume of users exponentially improves the ​user benefits from the technology. However, I would like to translate ​“Network Effects” to “Catalogue Effects” instead, where the volume and ​exclusivity of movies available in the platform gives them undue ​advantage.

Additionally, I would also look at market and technological uncertainty ​from one of the archetypes introduced to us in Systems Thinking—Limits ​to Growth. This concept basically states that a steep increase in a ​company’s growth over a short period of time may mean that ​performance plateaus faster, thereby reaching the company’s limit ​earlier. This concept is applicable to many aspects of new technology ​including cryptocurrency and NFTs. One of my personal experiences on ​this was putting about Php 27,500 pesos to purchase an Axie Infinity ​character, that proved to be unprofitable after the downfall of the hype. ​Unfortunately, it wasn’t as bad as the losses of other people[3]. Hence, ​marketers and developers should also start looking at the problem from a ​bigger perspective because although uncertainty is counterintuitively ​certain, patterns in the development and progress of these new ​technology are being followed in a bandwagon manner. Hence, a ​considerable level of predictability can be applied, if these systemic ​patterns are anticipated.

Lastly, I would like to end on a note that the whole point of technology is ​to make things efficient and to solve societal problems, no matter how ​gargantuan or trivial they may be. However, one of the things I would ​also like to highlight—as a future business leader—is how introducing ​something new can disrupt many livelihoods. This was not necessarily ​delved into the article, but is an important consideration, nonetheless, ​as this can cause suffering to many people. IT professionals can benefit ​for many of these emerging technologies, but these income streams will ​be deprived from other sectors. Hence, it is also important to consider ​whether the technology you offer will disbenefit a group of people, and ​if you are strong enough to take social reprisals. Nevertheless, that’s an ​added risk into the mix that makes technology challenging and all the ​more interesting.

References:

[1] Delivery riders have started to providing sexual favors to passengers to earn extra income. See: G. ​M. A. News. (2022, August 14). Amid rising fuel prices, some delivery riders resort to selling their bodies ​to survive [News Agency]. GMA News Online. ​https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/content/841496/amid-rising-fuel-prices-some-​delivery-riders-resort-to-selling-their-bodies-to-survive/story/

[2] Monopoly, in this case, uses the definition of Peter Thiel in the book “Zero to One: Notes on ​Startups, or How to Build the Future” which means either you are the exclusive provider, or you hold ​the biggest market share in a sea of competitors.

[3] Chow, A., & De Guzman, C. (2022, July 25). A Crypto Game Promised to Lift Filipinos Out of Poverty. ​Here’s What Happened Instead. Time. https://time.com/6199385/axie-infinity-crypto-game-​philippines-debt/